| STILLINGER CAPITAL | Small-Bay Flex & Garage Condo Q3 2026 · 40 metros |
Garage condos and small-bay flex get filled by a specific household: two or more vehicles, a newer HOA neighborhood with no room for a third bay, a boat or a side business, and the income to pay for space of their own. We ranked 40 metros across 21 states — the Southeast, Texas, the Midwest and the Mountain West — on exactly those fundamentals, using public Census data and a hand-scored lake-access rating.
The top 10 are below with their scores. All 40 metros, 18 flagship counties and the full input breakdown are in the complete scorecard, free on request.
40 metros ranked | 18 counties profiled | 6 inputs per metro |
Score is the weighted percentile of each metro against the other 39. A 100 on any input means the metro leads the field on that input; 50 means it sits at the median. Gold bars show each of the six inputs; the score bar in rust is the weighted total.
01 | Boise, ID Meridian · Eagle | 88.2 |
2+ vehicles 71.6% | Built 2010+ 23.7% | Trades / 10k 85 |
Lake access strong | HH income $85,987 | Owner-occ. 72.5% |
02 | Raleigh, NC Apex · Holly Springs · Wake Forest | 83.3 |
2+ vehicles 65.1% | Built 2010+ 26.4% | Trades / 10k 62 |
Lake access strong | HH income $100,103 | Owner-occ. 66.6% |
03 | Salt Lake City, UT Lehi · Draper | 78.8 |
2+ vehicles 66.2% | Built 2010+ 18.3% | Trades / 10k 64 |
Lake access strong | HH income $98,083 | Owner-occ. 67.0% |
04 | Charlotte, NC Fort Mill · Concord · Cornelius | 75.6 |
2+ vehicles 62.9% | Built 2010+ 21.4% | Trades / 10k 60 |
Lake access major | HH income $83,304 | Owner-occ. 65.9% |
05 | Charleston, SC Summerville · Johns Island | 70.3 |
2+ vehicles 61.4% | Built 2010+ 24.5% | Trades / 10k 62 |
Lake access strong | HH income $85,254 | Owner-occ. 69.1% |
06 | Northwest Arkansas, AR Rogers · Bentonville | 69.1 |
2+ vehicles 66.1% | Built 2010+ 23.6% | Trades / 10k 54 |
Lake access strong | HH income $81,650 | Owner-occ. 62.3% |
07 | Greenville, SC Simpsonville · Anderson · Seneca | 68.7 |
2+ vehicles 64.2% | Built 2010+ 17.6% | Trades / 10k 56 |
Lake access major | HH income $71,240 | Owner-occ. 70.7% |
08 | Nashville, TN Nolensville · Mt. Juliet · Hendersonville | 67.2 |
2+ vehicles 64.4% | Built 2010+ 23.6% | Trades / 10k 52 |
Lake access strong | HH income $85,447 | Owner-occ. 65.2% |
09 | Austin, TX Leander · Georgetown · Dripping Springs | 66.7 |
2+ vehicles 59.1% | Built 2010+ 32.9% | Trades / 10k 56 |
Lake access major | HH income $100,431 | Owner-occ. 58.3% |
10 | Huntsville, AL Madison · Athens | 64.0 |
2+ vehicles 64.5% | Built 2010+ 22.4% | Trades / 10k 42 |
Lake access strong | HH income $85,989 | Owner-occ. 70.2% |
Where the big metros land. Austin 9th, Atlanta 12th, Dallas-Fort Worth 17th, Chicago 35th of 40. A metro average blends the exurban counties where this asset class tends to get built with an urban core where it rarely does, which is why the complete scorecard goes one level down to the county.
Metro rankings tell you where to look. Counties tell you where to build. Of the 18 flagship counties we profiled around the strongest submarkets, 12 clear a 67% two-plus-vehicle share; the two urban cores fall well short of it (Fulton at 47.6%, Mecklenburg at 55.2%). Two-thirds is our screening line, not a law of nature, but under it the household that wants a bay of its own is thinner on the ground, and no amount of metro-level strength makes up for that at the site.
The clearest example is Atlanta. The metro ranks 12th with 15.6% of its housing built since 2010. Forsyth County, on its northern edge, is at 31.7% — twice the metro figure — with 74.7% of households running two or more vehicles. That is the neighborhood the asset class is built for, and the metro average hides it.
01 Rockwall, TX 2+ vehicles 77.6% Built 2010+ 36.5% HH income $127,981 | 02 Forsyth, GA 2+ vehicles 74.7% Built 2010+ 31.7% HH income $143,784 | 03 Kaufman, TX 2+ vehicles 71.6% Built 2010+ 37.6% HH income $89,485 |
Every metro is scored on the same six inputs. For each input, the metro's value is converted to its percentile rank among the 40, then the percentiles are weighted and summed. Lake access is the one hand-scored input: a 0–3 rating of major recreational water within a normal tow, scaled against the top of the field rather than ranked, so the difference between a 2 and a 3 is not overstated.
| Input · why it matters | Weight |
Households with 2+ vehicles The end user. Two cars plus a toy is a garage that is already full. | 25% |
Housing built 2010 or later Newer subdivisions mean HOA rules and no third bay. | 20% |
Small trades establishments per 10k residents Plumbers, electricians and small crews are the flex tenant. | 20% |
Lake access (hand-scored 0–3) Boats and trailers need a home nine months a year. | 20% |
Median household income Ability to pay for space outside the home. | 10% |
Owner-occupied share Owners commit to a market; renters move. | 5% |
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year and CBP 2023 (County Business Patterns: establishments with 1–19 employees in construction, other services such as repair and maintenance, and administrative and support services such as landscaping). Lake scores are Stillinger Capital estimates and are reviewed each quarter. Not yet in the score: flex supply per capita, industrial land pricing and permit activity — they are tracked and will be added as the data matures. This edition measures demand fundamentals only.
The PDF edition includes:
| → | The full ranking of all 40 metros with scores and the six-input breakdown for each |
| → | County-level fundamentals for 18 flagship counties, with the site-signature test applied to each |
| → | The two tiers of the asset class explained: luxury motor condos and flex garage condos, and why they need different markets |
| → | Methodology, weights and vintages, so you can disagree with the model on the record |
The scorecard is the slow layer. The fast layer is the daily market intelligence brief — rates, capital flows and submarket activity for small-bay flex, every trading day.