Research Archive
Market Intelligence
Every trading day we read the capital markets, rate and economic prints, and submarket news that move small-bay flex and garage condo projects, then publish what actually changed. No forecasts dressed as facts, no recycled headlines — the signal, the assets, the demand, and where the debt is clearing.
Latest · No. 059 · October 29, 2026
48.1 consumer sentiment is the number that matters today, down 6.96% from 51.7, with real disposable income off $50.1B and vehicle sales down 3.55% to 16.378M SAAR. That combination says the marginal RV and boat buyer is pausing. It does not say the existing owner is selling.…
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No. 058 · Oct 28, 2026
Consumer sentiment printed 48.1 in September, down 6.96% from 51.7, while durable goods spending rose 2% to $2,443.6B. That split is the whole story for garage condos. Sentiment measures…
Small-bay economics hold while big-box industrial gets… / Payment sensitivity is the number to watch now / Five handle on the ten-year, credit stays open / Cost segregation on an owner-occupied garage suite
No. 057 · Oct 27, 2026
The 10-year printed 5.00% on October 23, the first five-handle in this cycle, while RV shipments fell 9.2% in September to 23,230 units and are down 13.7% year to date at 230,511. That…
Construction spending climbs while housing supply pulls… / RV shipments down but durable goods spending up two… / Five percent tens meet tightest high yield spreads / Opportunity Zone reporting rules updated in Federal…
No. 056 · Oct 26, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6 billion in August, up 2.0% in one month, while consumer sentiment collapsed to 48.1. That gap is the entire small-bay flex story. The person storing a…
Starts fell 5.2% but replacement cost keeps climbing / Durable goods up 2% while sentiment hits 48.1 / Ten year drops 17bps, industrial CMBS keeps clearing / New QOF certification rules and cost seg basics
No. 055 · Oct 25, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up 2.0% from $2,395.6B, while consumer sentiment collapsed to 48.1 from 51.7. That divergence is the whole story for small-bay flex. People…
Flex suites get cheaper to build as housing stalls / Goods buyers keep spending while sentiment cracks / Ten-year drops 17 bps, credit stays open / Opportunity Zone reporting rules just got rewritten
No. 054 · Oct 24, 2026
Consumer sentiment printed 48.1 in September, down 6.96% from 51.7, yet durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up 2% month over month. That gap is the whole garage condo thesis.…
Twenty feet of clear height is the moat / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment near lows / Ten-year drops 17 basis points, high yield widens / QOZ 2.0 rules are moving, read the Federal Register
No. 053 · Oct 23, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment collapsed to 48.1 from 51.7 and vehicle sales fell to 16.378M SAAR. That…
Housing starts crack while industrial output grinds higher / Durables up two percent, sentiment at forty-eight / Five-point-one-three on the tens changes every pro forma / Opportunity Zone one point zero starts expiring
No. 052 · Oct 22, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up 2.0% from $2,395.6B, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2 and vehicle sales dropped to 16.38M. That split matters. The…
Construction spending climbs while housing starts crater / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment down six / Ten-year at 5.12 with high yield spreads tightening / Opportunity Zone reporting rules updated in Federal…
No. 051 · Oct 21, 2026
$179B of CRE loans face refinancing risk, per Newmark's October 16 read, while Bisnow reports CRE loan stress easing even as bank write-offs spike. For small-bay flex, that split matters.…
Prologis slowdown clears runway for small-bay product / Winnebago prints fiscal 2026 as Love's crosses 200 / Nontraded REITs raised six times what they redeemed / IRS updates QOF certification and reporting procedures
No. 050 · Oct 20, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up 2% from $2,395.6B, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2. That split is the whole story for garage condos. The people buying…
Flex supply tightens as big-box development pulls back / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment down six / Ten-year stuck above five while credit stays open / Opportunity Zone reporting rules get a correction notice
No. 049 · Oct 19, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 and vehicle sales dropped to 16.38M SAAR. That split matters for…
Flex supply tightens while big industrial pulls back / Durable goods up two percent sentiment at 51.7 / Ten year at 5.10 percent refinancing wall ahead / Opportunity zone reporting rules get updated…
No. 048 · Oct 18, 2026
290,000 RV units. That is where RVIA and ITR Economics now peg 2026 wholesale shipments, flattening to 285,000 in 2027. The fleet keeps growing even in a soft year, and every one of those…
Small bay stays scarce while big box capital hunts… / Fleet keeps growing even as the buyer gets cautious / Five handle on the ten year is the whole conversation / Opportunity Zone reporting rules get updated this…
No. 047 · Oct 17, 2026
290,000. That is where RVIA and ITR Economics now peg 2026 wholesale RV shipments, flattening to 285,000 in 2027. Two years of soft wholesale does not shrink the parked fleet. It reprices…
Construction spending climbs while housing supply pulls… / Flat RV shipments, parked fleet still needs housing / Five handle on the tenner, credit still open / Opportunity Zone reporting rules get a Federal Register…
No. 046 · Oct 16, 2026
290,000 units. That is where RVIA and ITR Economics now peg 2026 wholesale RV shipments, flat into 2027 at 285,000. Shipments are the wrong number to panic over. The installed base is what…
Permits fall while flex supply stays structurally thin / RV shipments flatten but durable goods keep climbing / Five handle on the ten year bites small deals / Opportunity zone reporting rules just got rewritten
No. 045 · Oct 15, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up 2.0% from $2,395.6B, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2. That split is the whole story for garage condos. The sentiment…
Construction spending climbs while housing permits keep… / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment at 51.7 / Five point two one ten year, lenders still funding / Opportunity Zone reporting rules get a Federal Register…
No. 044 · Oct 14, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2. That split is the whole story for small-bay flex. The…
Twenty foot clear height is the whole moat / Durable goods up while sentiment craters to 51.7 / Five handle on the ten year changes everything / Cost segregation on an eight hundred foot box
No. 043 · Oct 13, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up $48B and 2.0% month over month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2. That split is the whole story for garage condos.…
Small-bay economics hold while big-box capital chases… / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment at 51.7 / Ten-year at 5.22 while SOFR sits at 3.87 / Opportunity Zone reporting rules get a Federal Register…
No. 042 · Oct 12, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2. That split is the whole small-bay story. The people…
Construction spending rises while housing permits fall… / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment down six / Ten-year at 5.22 with curve nearly flat / Opportunity zone reporting rules get a Federal Register…
No. 041 · Oct 11, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 and vehicle sales dropped to 16.38M. That split matters. Households…
Construction spending rises while housing permits fall… / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment near record lows / Ten-year eases to 5.22 but mortgages climb / Opportunity Zone reporting rules updated in Federal…
No. 040 · Oct 10, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up $48B and 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 and vehicle sales dropped to 16.38M annualized. That split…
Supply pipeline tightens as housing starts slide again / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment at 51.7 / Ten-year at 5.22 percent, SOFR grinding to 3.87 / Opportunity zone reporting rules updated in Federal…
No. 039 · Oct 9, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2.4436 trillion in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 and the 10-year sits at 5.28%. That split is the whole story…
Supply pipeline thins while flex construction costs hold / Durables up two percent, sentiment down six / Curve flattening at five twenty eight hurts leverage / Opportunity Zone reporting rules just got updated
No. 038 · Oct 8, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment collapsed to 51.7 from 55.2. That split is the whole story for small-bay flex.…
Housing starts fall while flex construction costs hold / Durable goods surge as sentiment hits 51.7 / Curve steepens to 51bps as SOFR eases / Opportunity Zone reporting rules tighten this cycle
No. 037 · Oct 7, 2026
The 10-Year printed 5.31% on October 5 and the 30-year mortgage jumped 25 bps in a week to 7.28%. That combination does two things to small-bay flex at once. It raises the hurdle on new…
Rate math is throttling next year's supply pipeline / Durable goods up two percent, sentiment at 51.7 / Credit is open, cost of capital is not / Opportunity Zone reporting rules just got rewritten
No. 036 · Oct 6, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 and the 10-Year sits at 5.28%. That split is the whole story for…
Flex supply tightens while housing construction pulls back / Durable goods up 2% as sentiment craters / Rates up across the curve, delinquency still low / Opportunity Zone reporting rules get a Federal Register…
No. 035 · Oct 5, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2. That gap is the whole story for garage condos. Sentiment…
Supply pipeline tightens while construction costs keep… / Buyers keep spending even as confidence craters / Ten-year at 5.24 while high yield spreads compress / Opportunity zone reporting rules get a correction notice
No. 034 · Oct 4, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up 2.0% and $48B in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7, down 6.3%. That split is the entire thesis for small-bay flex. The…
Construction spending climbs while the housing pipeline… / Toy haulers cross 15,000 units as sentiment sags / Industrial paper clears while the buyer's mortgage gets… / Cost segregation does more work than opportunity zones…
No. 033 · Oct 3, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% month over month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2. That split is the whole story for garage condos. The…
Starts Fall While Construction Spending Grinds Higher / Toy Hauler Milestone Meets Weakening Consumer Sentiment / Ten-Year At 5.24 With Mortgage Spread Blowing Out / Opportunity Zone Reporting Rules Just Got Updated
No. 032 · Oct 2, 2026
The 10 year closed at 5.29 on September 30, three basis points higher, and the 30 year mortgage jumped 25 basis points to 7.28. That is what your buyer's capital costs. The offset is real:…
Replacement cost climbs while residential permits pull… / Toy haulers cross 15,000 units, sentiment slides / Curve steepens, floating beats fixed right now / New opportunity zone reporting rules landed September 28
No. 031 · Oct 1, 2026
Durable goods spending printed $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, and total vehicle sales hit 16.98M SAAR, up 2.42%. That is the demand engine for garage condos. People…
Construction spending rises while housing permits keep… / Vehicle sales climb to 16.98 million as sentiment craters / Ten-year at 5.26% is the binding constraint / Opportunity Zone reporting rules updated in Federal…
No. 030 · Sep 30, 2026
Durable goods spending hit $2,443.6B in August, up $48B or 2.0% in a single month, while consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2. That split matters more to garage condo owners than any…
Construction spending slips as flex supply stays thin / Toys keep selling while sentiment keeps falling / Five percent tens reset every construction pro forma / Opportunity Zone rules refresh as designations get…
No. 029 · Sep 29, 2026
August RV shipments fell 16.4% to 23,599 units, and dealers are openly shifting to smaller, lower-priced models. That is the headline risk to garage condo demand, but read it correctly.…
Construction spending slips while flex supply stays thin / Shipments down sharply, installed fleet unchanged / Five-handle tens with industrial debt still clearing / Opportunity zone reporting rules just got rewritten
No. 028 · Sep 28, 2026
The 10 year Treasury printed 5.18 on September 24 versus 5.11 prior, and the 30 year mortgage followed to 7.03. That is the cost of your buyer's money. Yet total vehicle sales ran 17.19…
Permits Fall To 1403K While Build Costs Climb / Elkhart Ships 2027 Iron Into A 51.7 Sentiment Print / 10Y At 5.18 Pushes Every Underwriting Assumption Higher / Opportunity Zone Reporting Tightens While Cost…
No. 027 · Sep 27, 2026
23,599 RV units shipped in August 2026, down 16.4% year over year, with 2026 shipments off 14.2% at 207,191 units. That is the flow number, not the stock number. The installed base of…
Fort Mill pushback proves the entitlement moat is real / Toys down, trucks up, sentiment at 51.7 / Blackstone prints $1.7B industrial CMBS at 5.18% tens / Opportunity Zone reporting rules just got a correction…
No. 026 · Sep 26, 2026
23,599 RV units shipped in August 2026, down 16.4% year over year, with YTD volume off 14.2% at 207,191 units. That is the demand input most people get wrong on garage condos. New unit…
Construction spending falls while flex supply stays thin / Fewer new rigs, same crowded driveways and HOAs / Five percent tens make the end buyer think twice / Cost segregation on a garage suite you own
No. 025 · Sep 25, 2026
RV shipments fell 16.4% in August to 23,599 units, with year-to-date volume down 14.2% at 207,191. That is the second straight year of contraction in new RV supply. It does not kill garage…
Construction spending slips as flex supply stays thin / Soft sentiment, strong vehicle sales, weaker RV shipments / Ten-year at 5.11 resets every underwriting model / New opportunity zone reporting rules land in proposed regs
No. 024 · Sep 24, 2026
17.19 million SAAR vehicle sales in August against a 30-year mortgage at 7.03% is the whole garage condo thesis in two numbers. Households are still buying big durable toys while being…
Housing starts fall while clear height stays scarce / Vehicle sales up 2.58 percent, sentiment up 11.5 / Ten-year pinned at 4.96 with delinquency easing / Opportunity Zone reporting rules tighten for fund…
No. 023 · Sep 23, 2026
17.19 million SAAR vehicle sales in August, up 2.58% from 16.757M, against durable goods PCE that fell 1.02% to $2,380.1B. That split is the whole story for garage condos. Units keep…
Permits fall while institutional industrial bids keep… / Vehicle sales up, durable goods down, sentiment recovering / Ten-year eases to 4.96 but mortgages jumped / Opportunity zone reporting rules get teeth this month
No. 022 · Sep 22, 2026
The 10-year printed 5.01% on September 18, up seven basis points, with the 2s10s curve compressed to 0.20 and the 30-year mortgage at 6.95%. That combination matters more to garage condo…
Construction spending slips as flex supply stays thin / Vehicle sales climb while THOR reports challenging… / High yield spreads tight at 268 basis points / Opportunity zone reporting rules get new proposed…
No. 021 · Sep 21, 2026
43,148 people walked the Hershey RV show this month, and PRVCA called them serious buyers. That is the demand curve for 20 ft clear, 14x14 door garage suites in one number. Meanwhile the…
Industrial capital crowds big boxes, ignores small bay / Hershey crowd strong, durable goods wallet softer / Curve nearly flat at 25 basis points / IRS tightens Opportunity Zone reporting on funds
No. 020 · Sep 20, 2026
SOFR printed 3.85, up 23 basis points in a single move, while the 10 year fell to 4.94. Your construction draw got more expensive and your exit cap did not improve. For garage condo…
Permits down 2.7% thins the competing pipeline / Hershey record attendance meets soft durable goods / Front end repriced while long end fell / Opportunity zone reporting rules get real teeth
No. 019 · Sep 19, 2026
SOFR printed 3.85% on Sept 17, up 23bps from 3.62%, while the 10Y fell to 4.94% and the 10Y-2Y spread compressed to 0.25. Floating construction debt just got more expensive at the exact…
Industrial rollover risk favors owner-occupied small bay / Hershey record attendance meets soft durable goods print / Institutions crowding logistics while nontraded REITs shed / Opportunity zone reporting rules tighten for fund sponsors
No. 018 · Sep 18, 2026
The 10-year printed 5.01% on September 16 and SOFR jumped 23 bps to 3.85%, yet total vehicle sales ran 17.19M annualized in August, up 2.58%, and consumer sentiment rebounded 11.5% to 55.2.…
Falling construction pipeline tightens future small-bay… / Hershey record attendance meets soft durable goods print / Rates up across the curve, credit still open / New opportunity zone reporting rules hit fund sponsors
No. 017 · Sep 17, 2026
The 10-Year printed 5.00% on September 15, the first handle change that matters for anyone pricing a garage condo build. Meanwhile the 10Y-2Y spread compressed to 0.27 from 0.33 and the…
New supply tightens as construction spending slips again / Hershey draws biggest opening crowd since 2021 / Five percent tens with tight credit spreads underneath / Opportunity Zone reporting rules get teeth this cycle
No. 016 · Sep 16, 2026
Consumer sentiment jumped 11.5% to 55.2 in July even as durable goods spending fell 1.0% to $2,380.1B. Sentiment doesn't buy RVs, purchases do. Vehicle sales rose 2.6% to 17.19M units and…
Permits Up, Starts Down, No Garage Condo Comps / Hershey Show Opens, Durable Goods Spending Still Falling / Rates Rise Across The Curve, Credit Quality Holds / Cost Segregation And New QOZ Reporting Rules
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Start a conversationStillinger Capital · Market Intelligence · 44 editions · No. 016 – No. 059
Updated October 29, 2026
These briefs are general market commentary for informational purposes only. They are not investment, legal or tax advice, and are not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Figures are drawn from public sources and are not independently verified. Consult your own advisers before acting.