| STILLINGER CAPITAL | Small-Bay Flex & Garage Condo October 18, 2026 |
| 290,000 RV units. That is where RVIA and ITR Economics now peg 2026 wholesale shipments, flattening to 285,000 in 2027. The fleet keeps growing even in a soft year, and every one of those coaches needs a home that is not a driveway. Consumer sentiment at 51.7 and unemployment at 4.2% say the marginal buyer is stretched. Durable goods spending at $2,443.6B says the installed base is not. Garage condo demand tracks the stock of toys already owned, not this quarter's dealer floor traffic. Underwrite the fleet, not the headline. |
10-Yr UST 5.1 ↓0.09 | SOFR 3.89 ↑0.01 | 30-Yr Mtg 7.4 |
HY Spread 3.23 ↓0.02 | Durable Gds 2443.6 ↑48.00 | Sentiment 51.7 ↓3.50 |
| THE ASSET |
Construction spending hit $2,203,129M in August, up 0.85% from $2,184,474M. Industrial production printed 103.95, up 0.66%. The dollars are flowing, but look where. Prologis is flagging a development and sales slowdown amid volatility. Michelin paid $151M for a single Illinois facility. Investcorp took a Massachusetts industrial portfolio at $76.5M. Access to power is now the number one force shaping U.S. site selection. None of that capital is chasing 490 to 1,080 sq ft suites with 14x14 doors and 20 ft clear.
That is the structural point. Institutional industrial underwrites megawatts and 400,000 sq ft boxes. Garage condominiums underwrite a guy with a 42 ft fifth wheel and an HOA that will not let him park it. The two compete for dirt and for concrete pricing, not for tenants. Housing starts fell to 1,275K and permits to 1,403K, which loosens the subcontractor market that small-bay developers actually bid against. Self-storage remains the adjacent comp only: JLL closed $20M on a Fort Lauderdale development and Provident closed on 891 units in Glen Rock. Different product, different buyer, useful read on lender appetite for storage-adjacent collateral.
| BULLISH | Institutional capital chasing megawatts and big box; small-bay supply remains structurally under-delivered. |
| THE DEMAND |
RVIA's Fall 2026 RoadSigns, built by ITR Economics, puts 2026 wholesale shipments at roughly 290,000 units with a 284,600 to 295,400 range, then 285,000 in 2027 inside a 274,700 to 295,300 band. Flat, not collapsing. Lightspeed's September dealer report showed sales off, parts up and service flat. Parts up is the tell. Owners are maintaining what they already have rather than trading up, and a maintained unit still needs covered, powered, secure space twelve months a year.
The consumer side is genuinely soft. Consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 from 55.2, down 6.34%. Total vehicle sales dropped to 16.378M from 16.98M, off 3.55%. Real disposable income slipped to $18,410.5B. Unemployment ticked to 4.2%. Against that, durable goods spending rose 2% to $2,443.6B, and U.S. fishing participation hit a record high per Trade Only. Chris Smith launched Rally Point Consulting to build more RV rallies, and RV Overnights added loyalty and host programs. The ecosystem is deepening engagement while unit sales cool. We do not have current collector car index or HOA ordinance data in today's signals and will not pretend otherwise.
| NEUTRAL | Flat RV shipments and record fishing participation offset sentiment at 51.7 and falling vehicle sales. |
| THE CAPITAL |
The 10-Year Treasury printed 5.10% on October 15, down from 5.19%. The 10Y-2Y spread widened to 0.35 from 0.33. SOFR sits at 3.89%. The 30-year mortgage held flat at 7.40%. A 5.10% ten year with a positively sloped curve means long money costs more than short money again, which pushes developers toward floating construction paper and a real plan to exit through unit sales rather than a permanent loan.
Credit itself is not broken. High yield spreads tightened to 3.23% from 3.25%. CRE loan delinquency fell to 1.53% from 1.56%. Castlelake, backed by Brookfield, just priced a $1.1B CRE CLO. Blackstone is landing a $1.71B CMBS refi on a U.S. industrial portfolio and its UK industrial CMBS swelled to £1B. Industrial CMBS issuance is gaining share with SASB deals leading. Lenders want industrial collateral. What they will not do is underwrite a 60-unit garage condo project the same way they underwrite a Blackstone portfolio. That financing gap is why local banks and family office equity still dominate this space.
| NEUTRAL | Spreads and delinquency improving, but 5.10% ten year caps leverage and exit pricing. |
| THE TAX ANGLE |
The Federal Register published on September 28, 2026 an item titled Information Reporting Regarding Qualified Opportunity Zones and Updated Qualified Opportunity Fund Certification and Decertification Procedures. Plain language: the IRS is tightening how QOFs certify, how they report, and how they get decertified if they fall out of compliance. If you are holding garage condo ground inside a designated zone through a fund, your reporting burden and your paperwork cadence just got more specific. Read the actual document before your next filing.
Separately, the mechanic most garage condo buyers underuse is cost segregation. A 490 to 1,080 sq ft suite is not one 39-year asset. A cost seg study breaks out the 14x14 overhead door opener, interior electrical, lighting, site paving, fencing and landscaping into 5, 7 and 15 year lives. Those shorter-life components may qualify for bonus depreciation in the year placed in service. For a business owner storing inventory in a suite they own, that timing shift can be material against ordinary income. Every rate and percentage here depends on your specific facts, the current statute and your entity structure. This is general information, not tax advice. Talk to your CPA.
| BULLISH | Clearer QOF procedures plus component depreciation give owners concrete, checkable planning levers. |
| Buford, GA | Gwinnett County Public Schools redistricting plan dated September 23 is the only local signal. Household movement worth tracking, nothing operational yet. |
| Fort Mill, SC | Development moratorium ended October 1. A 270K sq ft project won approval October 7 despite opposition. Entitlement window is open. |
| Concord / Lake Norman, NC | Divided board backed Lake Norman townhomes near a future CATS commuter rail station. Density rising, private garage space shrinking. |
| Forney, TX | No Forney-specific signal today. Read it off Dallas metro industrial and the $3T national manufacturing buildout instead. |
| Benton, KY | No new Benton data in today's feed. Kentucky Lake boating season demand remains the variable we cannot yet quantify. |
We map capital sources across private lenders, family offices and funds, and run cost segregation studies for owners of qualifying commercial property.
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